Exists restlessness in the Casa Rosada due to the overheating of prices and an inflation index that does not give respite. There were three proposals this week to Minister Martín Guzmán, whom he was questioned by the continuous rise in prices.
Clarion confirmed that Alberto Fernández spoke about the issue, alone with the minister, on Saturday in Olivos. Guzmán blanked out a fact that generates unease: in March inflation will be above 4%. Marco Lavagna – head of Indec – drew up a first secret report: the index it could touch 4.2%.
Guzman tried to reassure to Alberto: “President,” he said, “we always estimate a first quarter with high inflation.” And he finished: “We are going to meet the 29% guideline.”
The problem was discussed -that day- also in Congress, in the meeting that Guzmán had with Máximo Kirchner and Sergio Massa.
Both they demanded action against the remarcation: they expressed the questions of the political wing to the Palacio de Hacienda. The minister attended to support the tax reform and held a dialogue alone – to clear clouds – with the two leaders of the Frente de Todos.
Both leaders spoke of the IMF. But they told the minister that measures would have to be applied to “control” inflation.
Máximo has a header phrase: “We can not have only a debt minister, we need an economy minister ”.
Massa insisted with his proposal: “We must curb inflation, and put pesos in the street ”.
On Wednesday, the issue was addressed at the meeting of the economic-social cabinet. The end of the year escalation caused the terrible peak of poverty: 4 out of 10 people are poor in Argentina.
The indicator has a concrete translation: the terrible failure of the political class to develop a sustained growth plan that generates social inclusion.
Cristina Kirchner hid the poor and he even said – at the FAO, in Rome – a Homeric nonsense: that poverty, at the end of his term, was 7%. He ended – the truth – his term with 30% poor.
Mauricio Macri created the fallacious slogan of “zero poverty”. He ended up with 35.5%. Alberto created the market-and not efficient- “Table Against Hunger”. Marginalization rose to 42%.
Poverty has been growing since the time of Raúl Alfonsín. But he made a strong and structural leap with Carlos Menem. And then- no president could stop the social slide and reverse the trend. They all failed for a reason: there was never a stabilization and growth plan that allowed for sustained development. In general, the ease of the “patches” was chosen.
Now it’s done the same: Argentina go aimlessly and the Government promotes a competition for chase away private investment.
He too “Cristina effect” it continues to produce unusual erosion of local assets. In March alone, Argentine stocks on Wall Street fell 19% and bonds 9%.
Guzmán asked for a truce in the face of doubts in the Cabinet.
In private, he insists with a political carrot: he is confident that inflation will be 2% in May and – optimistically – he assures that it will reach 1% near the crucial October election.
Its core anti-inflation strategy is back the dollar. A policy with high future risk.
There is a kind of Unofficial secret “tablita”. Miguel Pesce implements that decision of the Economy: in January it was devalued by 3.7%; February 2.9%; March 2.4% and 2% is projected in April.
Guzmán transmitted to the Cabinet that this “little table” will work: that inflation will go down. The exchange rate delay is the only anti-inflationary “strategy”.
I know contradicts with Guzmán’s own diagnosis: the minister maintains that inflation has a “multi-chance” origin and, therefore, would need a “multifaceted” plan to successfully attack inflation.
All his colleagues look at Guzmán suspiciously. But he resisted the onslaught and also disturbing versions. It was circulated – without any foundation – that Cecilia Todesca could replace him at the head of the Palacio de Hacienda.
The version emerged from offices of the Casa Rosada and advanced in the Buenos Aires City. They want to rush it because they want action and “story” against prices. La Cámpora and Cristina claim that Economy blame the entrepreneurs and whitewash an Axel Kicillof-style pricing strategy.
Guzmán does not want. He admits that it was a policy that failed in Cristina’s second term.
But Paula Español embodies those flags. It extended price control without even negotiating with market makers.
COPAL complained and Daniel Funes del Rioja presented a tough document: food companies have a 25% delay in their costs. Spanish countered: “Stop crying. Companies keep winning ”.
There was an emergency meeting. COPAL threatens to go to court and will make it public as soon as possible. Funes exclaimed, in that heated meeting of businessmen: “They just want to step on inflation.”
Minister Guzmán is firm. Alberto supported him in the face of the versions and wanted to give an internal message when he received it – long hours – in Olivos: there are no changes.
Guzmán has an additional power: He is Argentina’s interlocutor with the IMF and nobody wants to contradict Kristalina Georgieva’s wish to have him at the negotiating table. Also the “visible face” of the Casa Rosada with the US Treasury.
On Wall Street, bondholders insist Washington did not do well. In their reserved reports they state that progress with the IMF is zero and that Guzmán’s dialogue with the Treasury it turns out poor. This was transmitted by JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and UBS to their exclusive clients.
The Manhattan bondholders are working on a hypothesis: they say there will be no agreement with the IMF. Guzmán, in a week, will be in Berlin, Rome, Madrid and Paris. It will advance in the strategy that the Government likes the most: try to defer problems and buy time. Support is sought from the IMF and kick the payment to the Paris Club.
The minister insists on continuing to negotiate with the IMF. For Guzmán, it would give a “political umbrella” to the strategy of containing the dollar. The meeting in Olivos was “power” and Alberto insisted a lot on the political requirements that must be included in any negotiation with the IMF.
It happened when Guzmán told how Georgieva rejected Cristina’s plan to ask for a 20-year agreement. Alberto Fernández, first, demands that Guzmán be clear that the agreed program is a proposal from Argentina. Also, the President instructed him to do the following: include a special clause in the eventual agreement with the IMF.
It would be to conform and reassure the vice president. It is about establishing in the agreement a clause so that Argentina automatically enjoys any change in the IMF statute, which allow to extend the terms of an agreement from 10 to 20 years. Both demands are “story” and they are intended to be included, to satisfy Cristina’s electoral discourse.
It’s about cosmetics. Like the attempt to force, this Thursday, a meeting with Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, which finally happened for Saturday.
Larreta doesn’t trust Alberto. He says the unfair actions of the President broke trust. That is why he did not want to go to Olivos, so that Alberto could embroil him in an external negotiation that the opposition describes as lousy.
Máximo Kirchner probed – a few weeks ago – the search for an agreement with little success. He spoke with Cristian Ritondo.
The intention of the head of La Cámpora –with the endorsement of Cristina– is bring together the “presidential candidates” of the opposition and the ruling party: Larreta, María Eugenia Vidal, Martín Lousteau, Rodolfo Suárez, Jorge Capitanich, Kicillof, Massa and Máximo himself.
In Máximo’s plan, “the eight” would agree to an endorsement of the negotiation with the IMF. The initiative did not advance. Therefore, this Saturday there will only be one topic at the Olivos summit: how to attack the new wave of Covid, which – actually – looks like a tsunami.
.
#Alberto #Fernándezs #nervousness #due #sharp #rise #prices
source https://pledgetimes.com/alberto-fernandezs-nervousness-due-to-the-sharp-rise-in-prices/
Disqus comments