At the end of the week, the blue dollar go up a peso, to $ 164. The uncertainty of the market is felt on Argentine stocks, which fell up to 7% in New York and up to 4% in the Buenos Aires stock market, while the country risk once again climbed above 1,500 points.
Country risk, the JP Morgan indicator that measures the excess rate that Argentina must pay to borrow, rises 0.7% in this round, at 1504 basis points. In this way, it returns to above 1,500 points after two weeks in the previous step.
This Friday the Merval falls 2% and follows the general trend set by the Dow Jones, which lost 1.9%. At the local level, the role that falls the most in the leading panel is Centra Puerto, which loses 4.2%.
In New York, almost all Argentine stocks are in the red. The worst part is Edenor with a drop of 7%. The rest of the panel faces losses of up to 3%. Only a handful of ADRs are saved, with Supervielle leading the charge, rising 3%.
From Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI) they mark that “the meeting of the Federal Reserve this week scared the markets, given the renewed fears that the entity will become more restrictive in its monetary policy “.
At the local level, “investors are still waiting for news about the negotiations between the government and the International Monetary Fund “.
Another element that stresses the market is that next Thursday it will be known MSCI’s key decision on whether Argentina will abandon the Emerging market classification and go to Frontera – the most probable scenario – or if it will end up in the group of countries that are in “Standalone” without belonging to any index.
For PPI the latter “it would be the worst possible scenario since it would imply very little inflows to ADRs plus what comes out by ceasing to participate in the Emerging Index “.
Dollar on the rise
With the rise to $ 164, so far in June the informal dollar recovered eight pesos, which leaves it just two pesos below the level it had at the start of the year, when it was trading at $ 166 in the caves of the downtown area.
The explanation of why the blue woke up now is linked to the fact that June is a month in which the amount of pesos increases by turning. The prospect that in the coming weeks the bonus will begin to reach the accounts of workers in a dependency relationship suggests that the demand for dollars will rise and that pushes the price.
To this is added that the salaries of $ 150,000 will stop paying Earnings from this month, which will release another batch of pesos that in July it could put pressure on the blue, together with the first installment of the refund for what was contributed with this tribute in the first part of the year.
Another element that will increase the demand on the banknote is that they are already beginning to feel the effects of the first installment of the joint 2021 that in recent weeks have been climbing from the 30% intended by Minister Martín Guzmán to more than 40%, with the agreements in which the public sector intervenes at the head.
Even with the rebound these days, the blue dollar is two pesos below the savings dollar, so it continues to be the most accessible option for most people trying to save.
Those who can turn to the financial market find an alternative that is still cheaper: the MEP dollar. This variant, which is accessed through the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, is listed this Friday at $ 160, an increase of 0.1%.
Cash with liquid, which allows foreign currency to be withdrawn from the country, rises 1.1% and reaches $ 165.8.
The rise of the blue also begins to be seen as precautionary before what is predicted that it will happen in July. That month the rain of dollars will be cut that the field has been overturning through the liquidation of foreign exchange, because the cycle of the heavy harvest will have already been closed.
Also, unlike what happened until two months ago, the “friendly hands” seem to have disappeared from the market who went out to sell lots of tickets so that the increase in supply would control the price.
With this level of the blue, the gap with respect to the official dollar -which today is trading at $ 95.38 at the wholesale level – it reaches 73%.
The retail dollar averages $ 100.70, which leads to the saving dollar, with surcharges and taxes, to $ 166.
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source https://pledgetimes.com/argentine-stocks-fall-as-much-as-7-in-new-york-and-country-risk-scales-to-more-than-1500-points/
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