The increase in the cost of civil construction inputs and the fall in the purchasing power of families impacted the numbers of the real estate market in the country and sales of new properties had a drop of 9.5% in the third quarter of this year, compared to the same period of the year. last year. Compared to the second quarter of 2021, the drop was 11.2%.
The data are from the Brazilian Chamber of Construction Industry (CBIC), which today (22) presented the National Real Estate Indicators, a study that provides information on launches, sales, final offer, price, in addition to the participation of the Casa Verde e Amarela program in the sector. The survey was conducted in 162 cities, 20 capitals.
In the year, however, there was an increase of 22.6% in sales, compared to the period from January to September 2020. “The first half has already given us a boost and the year will close well, but the third quarter shows very strong drop in sales”, said the president of CBIC, José Carlos Martins, during virtual press conference to present the data.
According to him, the inflation of materials and machines, according to the National Construction Cost Index (INCC), calculated by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), has already passes 30% in the pandemic period and the costs were not fully passed on to buyers, that is, there is still room for an increase in property prices.
He explains that the households’ lack of purchasing power is holding back this increase, as general inflation already reaches 10%, “but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen later on”.
“The great hope is that we have a continuous interest in the acquisition, families are looking for real estate, they continue to have an appetite”, he highlighted.
Despite the good numbers for the year, Martins warns that input costs may continue to affect the sector, consequently in the generation of jobs. “Today’s job is yesterday’s sale. We are going to close the year with hiring 360,000 to 400,000 new jobs because we sell very well in the first nine months,” he said. “Tomorrow’s job depends on today’s sales and it has fallen by almost 10%, so we have to be very careful not to have a delicate situation next year”, he pointed out.
In relation to launches, there was growth of 13.6% in the third quarter of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020. Compared to the previous quarter, the increase was 7%. In the year, the increase was 37.6% in launches, compared to the result from January to September of last year.
According to CBIC, many entrepreneurs held back releases last year due to the pandemic and, with the improvement in the health situation, they are resuming business. With this, the sector is reaching a balance between the volume of launches and sales.
Green and Yellow House
With the increase in the cost of production and inflation that affects the purchasing power of families, the president of CBIC also mentions the drop in participation in the Casa Verde e Amarela sector, a government program that subsidizes the purchase of their own home by families from low income. The program, which represented almost 60% of launches and sales in the sector, currently occupies 40% of launches and 47% of sales in the cities surveyed.
“What a paradox,” said the president of CBIC. “[Na faixa de renda] where 90% of the housing deficit is, you have a reduction in market share”, he highlighted. The impact was even greater in the North and Northeast regions.
There was a drop in the program both in launches and in sales, compared to the second quarter of 2021 and also to the third quarter of 2020, as well as in the launches accumulated in the nine months of the year, compared to the same period in 2020. The reductions ranged from 10 .7% to 19.9%. Only in the accumulated sales from January to September there was growth, of 10.4%, in relation to the accumulated of the period of last year.
According to Martins, the impact of the increase in inputs is greater in popular properties. “The price of real estate does not fit in the families’ budget. Inflation erodes their income, goods are more expensive and they are doubly harmed in the acquisition”, he said. “That doesn’t happen with higher value properties. The family can opt for a smaller property, go to a less prime location, there are options, which are not the case with a property for a lower income”, he explained.
Likewise, other markets support the increase in unit prices and construction companies have more margins to make adjustments and enable project launches.
In addition, there was doubt from the entrepreneurs about government subsidies for the program. According to CBIC, the federal government’s response to adequacy of the housing program, with the adjustment of the discount curve and the increase in the maximum price limits, should take effect from the fourth quarter of 2021.
Buy intention
The CBIC study also presented numbers on the population’s intention to purchase properties. According to the survey, the intention fell 7% in the third quarter, compared to the previous quarter, and 39% of those interviewed showed interest in acquiring a property within a period of up to three years.
Before the covid-19 pandemic, purchase intent was at 43% and even dropped to 20% at the worst moment of the health crisis, in April of last year.
Among the factors that can affect the purchase decision, the increase in inflation was mentioned by 45% of respondents, followed by the complicated political scenario (31%) and the concern with unemployment (24%). The increase in interest rates, the country’s low economic growth and the covid-19 pandemic were also reasons cited by the 1,200 people interviewed.
The research is jointly carried out by the National Service for Industrial Learning (Senai), in partnership with Brain Inteligência Estratégica.
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source https://pledgetimes.com/real-estate-market-saw-a-9-5-reduction-in-sales-in-the-3rd-quarter-istoe-dinheiro/
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